Politics and investment returns

By Huw Jones

Now that we’ve got a new Government here in the UK, have you ever wondered what difference a Conservative or Labour government has on investment returns?

Well, as it turns out, the answer is: not very much.

As the graphic shows, the UK stock market value has increased during the term of every government since 1926.

That’s probably not most people’s perception.

A red or blue flavoured government doesn’t seem to make any difference to investment returns.

 


Whilst we’re looking at investment returns, bad news doesn’t seem to hold the global stock markets back either.

The graphic shows what’s happened to the global stock market since 1970 right up to 2022 and some of the major events and incidents that have happened during that period.

It’s interesting to note how some of these events, whilst quite frightening at the time, had only a temporary impact on investment returns, if they had any impact at all.

Despite this, they are etched on our collective memories. I still have conversations with people bemoaning the investment loss during the COVID pandemic despite the fact that the markets are significantly higher now than they were before the pandemic.

 


The final chart shows all the bull markets (growth spurts) and bear markets (crashes) since 1926 and their durations.

Compare the size of the peaks and troughs and how long they go on for.

We tend to only remember the markets crashes – we even give some of them names like black Monday, black Wednesday, the credit crunch, dot com bubble, etc.

I’m not sure why we don’t do the same for market upturns.

Probably the same reason that the news doesn’t often mention when billions are wiped ON to the values of our pensions and investments.

Bad news sells, good news doesn’t.