The latest inflation figures (released on 16th August 2011) provided no surprises with CPI increasing to 4.4% (up 0.2% from June) and RPI steady at 5.0%. So what has this got to do with rioting and railways?

Quite a lot actually…

Picture the scene. It’s early January. The temperature at 06.30 has risen to -4C, mist wafts across the black cloudless sky and a commuter waits for his train.  The dark figure, wrapped up against the biting easterly wind, hunched, looks down at his smartphone.  His expressionless face, illuminated by the screen, gives no sign of the riot being planned at train stations across Britain.

When it happens it’s swift and ruthless: copies of the Metro are mindlessly destroyed, soggy tea bags used as missiles and a spontaneous outbreak of chatter in the quiet carriage all ensue. It’s carnage in the carriages.

It could happen on a train near you – a brief and widespread demonstration of slight annoyance – and they will have a point.

Fares will have just risen by 8.0% – but the service will be the same. Same old same old service.  Each commuter will be feeling the same way as every other commuter up and down the country.  Each armed with a smartphone, they will have the potential to really make people sit up and take notice of their plight.

But they wont.  At that time in morning everyone is too tired to talk, let alone riot. So why the change now?

Since 2004 fares had been increasing at a rate of RPI + 1%.  However with the government looking to reduce spending across all areas they decided that its time for the fare paying passengers to foot more of the bill for running the railways. After all it’s not cheap.

In the autumn of 2010, the Transport Secretary (Philip Hammond) outlined changes to how increases to government-set fares were calculated. For the record government-set fares include season tickets and off-peak returns For three years from 2012 these can be increased by RPI + 3% (based on the  inflation figures of the previous July).

So with July’s inflation numbers just out (on 16th august 2011) and with RPI at 5.0% the train operators have announced price increases of 8.0%.  Not all rail franchises are included – Merseyrail and ScotRail will have different increases (both less than 8%) – so any would-be rioters in those regions can stand down and enjoy Christmas!

For the rest of the UK don’t say you haven’t been warned.